Advertising’s Singularity Future?

Ever heard of the word singularity? If you haven’t you might just want to get your hands on the February 21, 2011 issue of Time Magazine. What is singularity and why should we care?

Cover image from February 21, 2011 Time Magazine

Singularity is defined as, “the moment when technological change becomes so rapid and profound, it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history.” I don’t know about you, but whenever I hear the word rupture used in any context it doesn’t bring up good thoughts.

A leading thinker in the realm of singularity and the featured individual in the Time article is Raymond Kurzweil, who has authored a book about the subject. The Time article focuses on how, through the continuing exponential growth in technology, we will be able to completely reverse engineer the human brain by the 2020’s and computers will ultimately become intelligent. Kurzweil estimates this intelligence epiphany will happen around 2045. It boggles the mind, at least mine.

The article goes on to discuss how this singularity moment will profoundly impact humanity on a variety of levels. One output of this pending mind meld moment between man and machine is captured in a quote, also published in the article, by science-fiction novelist and singularity advocate, Verner Vinge – “Within 30 years, we will have the means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended.” Really!? Still not sold on this singularity thing? Well, a glimpse of the future was recently on vivid display when IBM’s Watson computer competed against two major past champions on the popular quiz show Jeopardy. Watson’s digital neurons smoked both of them. Alex, I will take Human Irrelevance for $200 please. 

IBM's Watson Computer on Jeopardy

OK, so what does this have to do with advertising?  As I went through the mental process of applying the singularity principle to advertising I found myself taking both a deep pause and breath as I began to understand the potential impact it might have on my industry and the creative process.

Those of us in “the business” often profess that advertising is a balance of art and science. And from my many years of experience I would have to agree. The art side has always been driven by the human mind’s ability to think in abstractions, supplemented with the powerful element of emotion and empathy, and then mixed in with a level of consciousness about the environment around us that no other creature on the planet can match. The art side also includes a human’s ability to see color and create word and designs of all fashion.

The science side of advertising encompasses the established disciplines of analytics, demographics, ethnology and psychographics, to name a few. And in reality, all these disciplines are already greatly aided by the emergence of technology and computers. Even so, we still talk about the human element. Take for example, analytics. While powerful computer software programs help agencies and market researchers slice-and-dice captured quantitative and qualitative data about how consumers think and make buying decisions in almost countless ways, we still rely on people with Doctorate degrees, working within agencies and marketing companies, to see “the numbers within the numbers” and uncover insights that go beyond a computer’s ability to think intuitively. In the ad business we often call this the “aha” moment.

But if the singularity moment does arrive, as predicted, the rupture that will occur could be a ripple of seismic proportions that tears away this whole way of thinking and the advertising world as we know it.  Think about it. If computers and their processing power reaches the point of exceeding the ability of humans to process, analyze and use information – they may also likely gain the ability of unparalleled intuition. In fact, it is even predicted that computers will gain such a level of processing power that they can achieve consciousness.

Having gained both consciousness and intuition and incredible processing power to boot, besides being able to concept, design and manufacture better machines, medicines, food, clothing, shelter, and dare I even say it, military decisions - computers will be able to develop and execute advertising ideas, message strategies, write copy, devise tactical recommendations, propose product offers and formulate media plans far beyond what mere mortals could ever conjure up.

While I pretend to be no Nostradamus, I can’t help but believe the singularity principle is very real and its future impact on humanity, global commerce, let alone advertising or any other profession we might choose to pursue will be profound beyond measure.

HAL 9000 Computer in 2001: A Space Odyssey

 Maybe Stanley Kubrick had it right all along when he wrote the book, turned epic movie, 2001: A Space Odyssey in which the intelligent computer HAL 9000 was integral to the space mission. We may find our advertising profession run by intuitive and conscious computers. They may even be named in honor of past advertising legends – like the HAL Riney 2045. But hey, look at the bright side, it will leave us more free time to spend shopping for all the things we are told we need and want at precisely the moment we find ourselves most receptive to the advertiser’s message  and what they are selling.

Juri A. Tults